An effectiveness hierarchy of preventive interventions: Neglected paradigm or self-evident truth?

© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. Non-communicable disease prevention strategies usually target the four major risk factors of poor diet, tobacco, alcohol and physical inactivity. Yet, the most effective approaches remain disputed. However, increasing evidence supports the concept of an effectiveness hierarchy. Thus entive activities targeting individuals (such as 1:1 personal advice, health education, 'nudge' or primary prevention medications) consistently achieve a smaller population health impact than interventions aimed further 'upstream' (for instance, smoke-free legislation, alcohol minimum pricing or regulations eliminating dietary transfats). These comprehensive, policy-based interventions reach all parts of the population and do not depend on a sustained 'agentic' individual response. They thus tend to be more effective, more rapid, more equitable and also cost-saving. This effectiveness hierarchy is self-evident to many professionals working in public health. Previously neglected in the wider world, this effectiveness hierarchy now needs to be acknowledged by policy makers

Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality, generating a large and unequal burden of disease. Dietary trans fatty acids (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor, yet to be addressed in the UK (approximately 1% daily energy) as successfully as in other nations. Potential outcomes of such measures, including effects upon health inequalities, have not been well quantified. We modelled the potential effects of specific reductions in TFA intake on CHD mortality, CHD related admissions, and effects upon socioeconomic inequalities. METHODS & RESULTS: We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects of reductions (0.5% & 1% reductions in daily energy) in TFA intake in England and Wales, stratified by age, sex and socioeconomic circumstances. We estimated reductions in expected CHD deaths in 2030 attributable to these two specific reductions. Output measures were deaths prevented or postponed, life years gained and hospital admissions. A 1% reduction in TFA intake energy intake would generate approximately 3,900 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3,300-4,500) fewer deaths, 10,000 (8,800-10,300) (7% total) fewer hospital admissions and 37,000 (30,100-44,700) life years gained. This would also reduce health inequalities, preventing five times as many deaths and gaining six times as many life years in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent. A more modest reduction (0.5%) would still yield substantial health gains. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing intake of industrial TFA could substantially decrease CHD mortality and hospital admissions, and gain tens of thousands of life years. Crucially, this policy could also reduce health inequalities. UK strategies should therefore aim to minimise industrial TFA intake

A qualitative study of the contribution of pharmacists to heart failure management in Scotland

Study objectives: (1) To identify the medication management needs of chronic heart failure (CHF) patients and their caregivers; (2) To examine the perceived support for medication management available to these people from health professionals; (3) To identify the actual and potential perceived contribution of pharmacists to medication management. Setting: A mixed urban/ rural region in the west of Scotland. Design: Semi-structured qualitative research interviews. Participants: A total of 50 people with CHF (NYHA Class II and III) due to left ventricular systolic dysfunction (33 males; mean age 67 years, 17 females; mean age 68 years) and 30 nominated caregivers recruited from the outpatient departments of two hospitals in the West of Scotland. Sampling was purposive to include patients from a range of CHF severity, ages and sexes. Main results: Managing medications was a responsibility shared by both the patients with CHF and caregivers. Treatment regimens were reported to be difficult to comply with. Health professionals were seen to provide little support for medication management. Pharmacists were viewed as being a good and accessible source of practical assistance who were also knowledgeable about the individual’s heart health history. Participants reported valuing advice from pharmacists about the side effects of medications and for their assistance in reducing the complex logistics of medication management and in having medications delivered. Conclusions: Patients with CHF and caregivers voiced a willingness to try to manage their medication regimen accurately but had a limited capacity to do so. Pharmacists were viewed as providing valuable support to patients with CHF and their caregivers, in terms of medication management. The extended role of pharmacists in medication management of CHF should be encouraged

Comparing primary prevention with secondary prevention to explain decreasing Coronary Heart Disease death rates in Ireland, 1985-2000.

BACKGROUND: To investigate whether primary prevention might be more favourable than secondary prevention (risk factor reduction in patients with coronary heart disease(CHD)). METHODS: The cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to integrate data for Ireland describing CHD patient numbers, uptake of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors, and the mortality benefits of these specific risk factor changes in CHD patients and in healthy people without recognised CHD. RESULTS: Between 1985 and 2000, approximately 2,530 fewer deaths were attributable to reductions in the three major risk factors in Ireland. Overall smoking prevalence declined by 14% between 1985 and 2000, resulting in about 685 fewer deaths (minimum estimate 330, maximum estimate 1,285) attributable to smoking cessation: about 275 in healthy people and 410 in known CHD patients. Population total cholesterol concentrations fell by 4.6%, resulting in approximately 1,300 (minimum estimate 1,115, maximum estimate 1,660) fewer deaths attributable to dietary changes(1,185 in healthy people and 115 in CHD patients) plus 305 fewer deaths attributable to statin treatment (45 in people without CHD and 260 in CHD patients). Mean population diastolic blood pressure fell by 7.2%, resulting in approximately 170 (minimum estimate 105, maximum estimate 300) fewer deaths attributable to secular falls in blood pressure (140 in healthy people and 30 in CHD patients), plus approximately 70 fewer deaths attributable to antihypertensive treatments in people without CHD. Of all the deaths attributable to risk factor falls, some 1,715 (68%) occurred in people without recognized CHD and 815(32%) in CHD patients. CONCLUSION: Compared with secondary prevention, primary prevention achieved a two-fold larger reduction in CHD deaths. Future national CHD policies should therefore prioritize nationwide interventions to promote healthy diets and reduce smoking

Population assessment of future trajectories in coronary heart disease mortality.

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future

Impact of Smoking Reduction on Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends During 1981–2000 in England and Wales

OBJECTIVE: To explore how much of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality fall in England and Wales can be attributed to changes in smoking prevalence. METHODS: A previously validated cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to estimate the deaths prevented or postponed by changes in population smoking prevalence in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000. CHD mortality statistics and population trends in smoking were obtained from routine data sources. RESULTS: In England and Wales between 1981 and 2000, smoking prevalence in adults aged 25-84 decreased from 43% to 28% in men and from 35% to 24% in women. In men, most of the decrease occurred in those aged over 55. Smoking prevalence changed little in older women. An estimated 29,460 deaths were prevented or postponed (DPP) by this population reduction in smoking prevalence. Most of this benefit was seen in men (86% of the DPPs versus 14% in women). CONCLUSION: Large declines in smoking prevalence accounted for 29,460 fewer CHD deaths in England and Wales in 2000 compared with 1981. This emphasises the importance of a national strategy with comprehensive tobacco control programmes to further reduce smoking

Relation between socioeconomic deprivation and death from a first myocardial infarction in Scotland: population based analysis

No abstract available

Short-term and long-term outcomes in 133 429 emergency patients admitted with angina or myocardial infarction in Scotland, 1990-2000: population-based cohort study

Objective: To analyse short- and long-term outcomes and prognostic factors in a large population-based cohort of unselected patients with a first emergency admission for suspected acute coronary syndrome between 1990 and 2000 in Scotland. Methods: All first emergency admissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and all first emergency admissions for angina (the proxy for unstable angina) between 1990 and 2000 in Scotland (population 5.1 million) were identified. Survival to five years was examined by Cox multivariate modelling to examine the independent prognostic effects of diagnosis, age, sex, year of admission, socioeconomic deprivation and co-morbidity. Results: In Scotland between 1990 and 2000, 133 429 individual patients had a first emergency admission for suspected acute coronary syndrome: 96 026 with AMI and 37 403 with angina. After exclusion of deaths within 30 days, crude five-year case fatality was similarly poor for patients with angina and those with AMI (23.9% v 21.6% in men and 23.5% v 26.0% in women). The longer-term risk of a subsequent fatal or non-fatal event in the five years after first hospital admission was high: 54% in men after AMI (53% in women) and 56% after angina (49% in women). Event rates increased threefold with increasing age and 20–60% with different co-morbidities, but were 11–34% lower in women. Conclusions: Longer-term case fatality was similarly high in patients with angina and in survivors of AMI, about 5% a year. Furthermore, half the patients experienced a fatal or non-fatal event within five years. These data may strengthen the case for aggressive secondary prevention in all patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices (307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common co-morbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a ß blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p < 0.001). Among patients < 75 years 26% were prescribed a β blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients < 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women